_____________________Beyond the fresh F-16s

_________________________________________by
______________________________________S.M HALI

The announcement by the US government to sell F-16s to Pa-kistan in a deal that State Department officials said would improve regional security has made headlines on both sides of the divide. India has been offered similar aircraft or F-18s. 
Arm Chair defence analysts on both sides have offered varying opinion towards the offer. In Pakistan, there has been open jubilation to cautious optimism on one side. While perpetrators of the conspiracy theory have come out with claims of compromise and a sell-out to achieve the defence offer. 
The F-16 is valued for its ability to take on a variety of missions, including delivering precise air strikes. In that role, it has been used extensively in Afghanistan and Iraq to attack suspected insurgent hiding places, and Pakistan has said it would use the plane to strike at terrorists. 
The fighters to be sold to Pakistan are newer models off the production line, and not the older variant purchased by Pakistan in the 1980's. In 1990, it ordered more, but delivery was blocked when Congress passed legislation to punish Pakistan for its plan to develop nuclear weapons. The arms sale is seen as reward for Pakistan's cooperation in the War on Terror. 
One thing is certain that the additional F-16s will add teeth to the PAF but will not narrow the hi-tech gap between it and its erstwhile adversary, IAF. 
Qualitatively, Mirage 2000 and Su-30s of the IAF can match the new fourth generation multi-role F-16s, even if Pakistan pays heavily to get those jet fighters. 
Many experts feel that the Su-30s are more versatile than the F-16s. The offer to sell F-16s or F-18s and other defence equipment with licensed production will provide India the unfair advantage of being the supplier of F-16 spare parts and technology. 
In case Lockheed Martin closes down its facility in Texas, India will become the sole source of technical support in the region. One shudders to think of the implications if hostility breaks out between India and Pakistan. 
Another aspect is that advantages provided by sophisticated military systems are overshadowed by the fact that your enemy is familiar with its strengths as well as its weaknesses. 
The F-16 is not a true fourth generation fighter and details of the capability of the Pakistan-bound variant are not available yet. 
The latest F-16 (Block 50/52) is a sophisticated version, which has air-to-air, air-to-ground and air-to-sea capability, having a range of weaponry like AMRAAMs, Sparrow, HARMs (AGM-84-88), JDAMs and Harpoons for enhanced multi-role operations. 
However, with no more room for upgrading, it faces a handicap compared to the fourth-generation fighters, just getting aloft from the drawing boards. 
The superior performance of F-16s in recent conflicts are attributable to the support it has received from able wing-mates like Fi15 Eagles, F-18 Hornets, F-14 Tomcats and the F-22 Raptors, which operate under the umbrella of AWACS. 
In the absence of any airborne early warning system platform, PAF F-16s would be operating at a reduced threat potential as compared to IAF operating with newer generation of fighters. Thus the shopping list for a genuine fourth generation fighter must continue. 
The main players in the field are the Eurofighter - Typhoon, JAS-39-Gripen, Mirage 2000-V and IX, Chengdu Jian-10 (J-10), Dassault Rafale, Israeli Lavi and the F-22-Raptor. 
The table shown, is a comparison of some front line fighters.
The major requirement of PAF is a multi-role, day and night operational fighter, which can operate in consonance with a sophisticated airborne early warning platform. 
Under the present scenario, the JAS-39 - Gripen with the SAAB 2000 (Erieye) appears to be the ideal choice. However, the problem is that the Swedish government has so far declined Pakistan's request to acquire the Gripen. Perhaps a renewed effort could bear fruit.
The Typhoon or Raptor are neither economically viable nor would they be available for acquisition by Pakistan. 
The Mirage 2000-V is an option but lacks the capabilities of the Gripen or Typhoon or Raptor. In such circumstances, The Chengdu J-10 would perhaps be a viable option and could combine with the JF-17 Thunder to make a formidable team, which will serve PAF will in the years to come.

This column was published in The Nation on April 6, 2005
The original link to the column is http://nation.com.pk/daily/apr-2005/6/columns4.php